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Posts tagged demographics

Nokia Money is a potential game changerSeptember 1, 2009 by Mike Teasdale

One definition of the shallowness of the modern world is that the focus at this week’s Nokia World conference will no doubt be on which handsets Nokia releases and whether or not they have an iphone beater tucked up their Nordic sleeves.

But more interesting than all this hardware is the pre-announcement last week of Nokia Money.  To quote from the press release, Nokia Money:

“…will enable consumers to send money to another person just by using the person's mobile phone number, as well as to pay merchants for goods and services, pay their utility bills, or recharge their prepaid SIM cards.”

This promises to bring simple 24-hour banking services to a huge number of people, particularly in the developing world.  Globally there are about 4 billion mobile phones, but only 1.6 billion bank accounts.

If Nokia can pull this off, then I think this would be a Very Good Thing. Of course, not as interesting as whether the Spotify app is approved for the iPhone </irony>, but decently cool all the same.

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What does your email address say about you?September 1, 2009 by Mike Teasdale

I’ve recently been playing with Wolfram Alpha, which pulls in some great statistical information when you search on a first name, including the age distribution of the name and the average age of people with a particular name.

All this makes me think that you could make some pretty reasonable assumptions based purely on a first name.

Take ‘Gordon’ for instance.  Most famous Gordon is probably our current prime minister.  Wolfram Alpha’s search on Gordon shows the birth dates of Gordon over time (US only data, unfortunately):

gordon1

And from that data, you can generate another graph showing the age distribution of people called Gordon:

david

So the average age of an American called Gordon is 58 – which co-incidentally is the age of Gordon Brown.

Turning to David Cameron, David is a much more common name – but even so the average age of all Davids is 50.  Not a million miles away from David Cameron’s real age of 43.

So OK, if I could get hold of UK data this would be more interesting.  But my basic thought is that if your email address contains your first name, marketers could probably make a pretty good stab at guessing your age.

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What does your email address say about you?August 27, 2009 by Mike Teasdale

I’ve recently been playing with Wolfram Alpha, which pulls in some great statistical information when you search on a first name, including the age distribution of the name and the average age of people with a particular name.

All this makes me think that you could make some pretty reasonable assumptions based purely on a first name.

Take ‘Gordon’ for instance.  Most famous Gordon is probably our current prime minister.  Wolfram Alpha’s search on Gordon shows the birth dates of Gordon over time (US only data, unfortunately):

Fraction

And from that data, you can generate another graph showing the age distribution of people called Gordon:

\n(using standard US mortality data)

So the average age of an American called Gordon is 58 – which co-incidentally is the age of Gordon Brown.

Turning to David Cameron, David is a much more common name – but even so the average age of all Davids is 50.  Not a million miles away from David Cameron’s real age of 43.

So OK, if I could get hold of UK data this would be more interesting.  But my basic thought is that if your email address contains your first name, marketers could probably make a pretty good stab at guessing your age.

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Firefox grows European market share, whilst UK lags behindJune 30, 2009 by Mike Teasdale

Today’s launch of Firefox 3.5 is the latest shot in the long struggle for domination in the browser market. 

The data below – from AT Internet Institute - shows that Firefox has steadily been growing its market share in Europe, mostly at the expense of Internet Explorer.  Disappointingly for Microsoft, Internet Explorer’s market share actually dropped in March, coinciding with the long-awaited launch of IE 8.

navigateurs-200904-1.png

The same AT Internet research, from April 2009 shows the stark differences in the popularity of Firefox around Europe.  Of the five major European economies, the UK shows the lowest penetration of Firefox with 17% market share – compared with 30% in France and 42% in Germany.

navigateurs-200904-3.png

This competition is driving some genuine innovation in the browser market, which is great to see.  Compare and contrast with the situation around email, where Microsoft is lazily exploiting Outlook’s monopoly position to resist innovation and ignore web standards.

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Twitter UK celebrity chart – 22nd MayMay 22, 2009 by Mike Teasdale

A month since our last celeb chart, so what’s new?

Celeb Followers
Coldplay 848,910
Stephen Fry 510,333
Neil Gaiman 425,767
Lily Allen 385,495
Imogen Heap 363,913
Richard Bacon  336,431
Russell Brand 331,545
Jonathan Ross 270,432
Eddie Izzard 251,613
John Cleese 172,803
Phillip Schofield 166,120
Chris Moyles 159,523
Alan Carr 154,538
Fearne Cotton 119,004
Jimmy Carr 114,234
Richard Branson 109,932
Holly Willoughby 74,359
Andi Peters 53,019
Alan Davies 54,557
David Mitchell 56,740


Last month I confidently predicted that Richard Bacon would soon be top five – and naturally I was wrong.  He has almost doubled his follower count, but only makes it to number six.

The story instead is of the rise of musicians, with Lily Allen and Imogen Heap both easing into the top five – replacing Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross. 

With Coldplay now massively out at the front of the pack, it seems that Twitter could be replacing MySpace as the primary way for musicians to connect with their fans. 

Finally one big new entry to the chart – Eddie Izzard rocks in with 250k followers – an unfortunate omission (although he was born in the Yemen, so possibly doesn’t count!).  With Eddie’s arrival, Rob Brydon (46k) drops off the chart for the time being.

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Google’s Eurovision predictorMay 14, 2009 by Mike Teasdale

Google has turned its gaze away from worthy goals like predicting the spread of flu to more challenging tasks like forecasting the winner of this Saturday’s Eurovision Song Contest.

Like the flu prediction service, Google is studying search trends on particular keywords to come to its conclusions.  It excludes searches from a contestants own country, because you can’t vote for your own entry.

Personally I’ll be impressed if Google can pull this off.  As any student of Eurovision knows, simple ‘popularity’ ranks quite a bit behind the simmering stew of post-cold war politics across Europe in terms of influence on voting.  So the countries of the former Soviet Union may hate Russia at a governmental level, but the large numbers of Russian diaspora guarantee a healthy slug of votes flowing back to Mother Russia.

Presumably search volume – and hence accuracy – will improve closer to the final on the 16th May.  Right now Google has Turkey and Norway neck and neck for the win, just ahead of Greece.  The punters on Betfair have the same top three, but with Norway clearly ahead of Greece and Turkey. 

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Twitter UK celebrity chart – 20th AprilApril 20, 2009 by Mike Teasdale

Ashton Kutcher became the first person to top one million Twitter followers on Friday (and three days later is up to 1.23 million!), so it must be time for a quick look at our UK celebrity chart.

So what’s new.  Well Imogen Heap is new, although only because I forgot to include her – she has been on Twitter almost exactly a year and has added 100k followers in the past month, so my bad.

Neil Gaiman soars into the top three – and were it not for Stephen Fry I think we would talk a lot more about the way he uses the web.  Russell Brand is also up into the top five, now ahead of Jonathan Ross.

Finally keep an eye on Richard Bacon – at current rates of growth, he will be easing into the top five in a week or so.

As ever, please point out any errors or omissions – either comment here or tweet me on twitter.com/miketeasdale.

Celeb Followers Joined
Coldplay 589,896 92 days ago
Stephen Fry 432,118 274 days ago
Neil Gaiman 253,172 103 days ago
Russell Brand 242,800 69 days ago
Jonathan Ross 216,805 136 days ago
Imogen Heap 192,782 360 days ago
Richard Bacon  181,507 89 days ago
Lily Allen 152,129 75 days ago
Phillip Schofield 145,086 93 days ago
John Cleese 144,102 1.2 years ago
Chris Moyles 134,970 72 days ago
Alan Carr 116,929 292 days ago
Fearne Cotton 93,657 74 days ago
Jimmy Carr 90,149 173 days ago
Richard Branson 85,277 246 days ago
Holly Willoughby 56,655 66 days ago
Andi Peters 48,853 72 days ago
Alan Davies 46,850 70 days ago
David Mitchell 46,637 92 days ago
Rob Brydon 39,088 88 days ago

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Wisdom of crowds says Liverpool will beat FulhamApril 8, 2009 by Mike Teasdale

Guardian logoThe Guardian has been running a regular feature where readers choose a bet on a sporting event and compete against a betting expert and a former sportsman.  This week for instance you can choose a bet for Fulham vs Liverpool on Saturday (with the people opting for a Liverpool win).


The running total is a nice illustration of the wisdom of crowds - each week a £10 bet is placed, and the results so far this season are:

The former pro - betting kitty £166

The expert - betting kitty £143.25

The people - betting kitty £186.59

So the people - voting each week for their preferred bet - are comfortably ahead. 

Of course the really wise thing would be to not bet at all - by my reckoning there have been about 30 £10 bets placed this season, which puts all three groups comfortably in loss making territory. 
 

Update: By the way, the crowds got it right once more – Liverpool won one – nil with a goal in the 92nd minute. The ‘expert’ was spectacularly wrong, with a prediction that Liverpool would score in the first ten minutes of the game.

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Wisdom of crowds says Liverpool will beat FulhamApril 3, 2009 by Mike Teasdale

Guardian logoThe Guardian has been running a regular feature where readers choose a bet on a sporting event and compete against a betting expert and a former sportsman.  This week for instance you can choose a bet for Fulham vs Liverpool on Saturday (with the people opting for a Liverpool win).


The running total is a nice illustration of the wisdom of crowds - each week a £10 bet is placed, and the results so far this season are:

The former pro - betting kitty £166

The expert - betting kitty £143.25

The people - betting kitty £186.59

So the people - voting each week for their preferred bet - are comfortably ahead.  

Of course the really wise thing would be to not bet at all - by my reckoning there have been about 30 £10 bets placed this season, which puts all three groups comfortably in loss making territory.  

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Twitter UK celebrity chart – 2nd AprilApril 2, 2009 by Mike Teasdale

As I predicted a couple of weeks ago, Stephen Fry has at long last been overtaken at the top of the UK celebrity twitter chart by Coldplay.

We also have two new entries into the top five – Russell Brand eases into fourth place and Neil Gaiman has added almost 100,000 followers in a couple of weeks to get to fourth place.

Neil Gaiman is the only author in the top twenty, which is a bit of a surprise – good to see that his career has survived the dreadful job I made of editing his very first book!

Another big mover is Richard Bacon who has added 50,000 followers in the past two weeks – I set up a Twitter account a couple of days ago and he was one of the suggested people to follow, along with Al Gore, Perez Hilton and Miley Cyrus, so that might explain his sudden leap in popularity.

Celeb Followers Joined
Coldplay 425,408 74 days ago
Stephen Fry 370,110 256 days ago
Jonathan Ross 183,898 118 days ago
Russell Brand 162,989 51 days ago
Neil Gaiman 142,566 85 days ago
Phillip Schofield 126,877 75 days ago
John Cleese 126,297 1.2 years ago
Chris Moyles 115,223 54 days ago
Lily Allen 112,268 57 days ago
Alan Carr 94,473 274 days ago
Richard Bacon  80,833 71 days ago
Jimmy Carr 74,917 155 days ago
Richard Branson 71,634 228 days ago
Fearne Cotton 69,617 56 days ago
Andi Peters 43,608 54 days ago
Holly Willoughby 42,708 48 days ago
Alan Davies 41,026 52 days ago
David Mitchell 37,887 74 days ago
Rob Brydon 33,302 70 days ago
Charlie Brooker 30,466 64 days ago

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